Аннотация:
Introduction: The problem of committing illegal acts while intoxicated has been an urgent problem for a long time, the article presents a mathematical and statistical forecasting model and an algorithm for the possible manifestation of aggressive actions of persons with alcohol dependence.
Methods. The study was conducted at the State Institution «Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Mental Health» on the basis of LTP No. 1 and No. 5 of the DIN Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus. It was proposed 200 men aged 24 to 63 years.
The criterion for presence in the study was the presence of a diagnosis of alcohol dependence syndrome (F10.2). The sample included persons who committed aggressive and non-aggressive illegal acts, who were and were not prosecuted.
Possible diagnostic tools were used: Dependent Disorder Severity Assessment – (Bel-ITA/B-ASI) (Version #1); Methodology «Questionnaire propensity to aggression Bass-Perry»; Methodology «Types of aggressiveness» L. G. Pochebut (2012); Questionnaire «Style of self-regulation of behavior»; Test questionnaire «Research of volitional self-regulation» by A. V. Zverkov; Questionnaire for the study of the stages of psychotherapy «URICA»; Scale «Readiness for the prevalence of behavior and desire for a meeting» (SOCRAT); Express diagnostics of uncontrolled emotional excitability V.V. Boyko; Aggressive risk assessment HCR 20.Statistical data analysis is performed using SPSS 19.0. In order to create an algorithm for the possible commission of aggressive actions, analyzes were carried out, multiple logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis were carried out.
Results. The analysis of risk factors and the possibility of predicting the commission of dangerous manifestations of alcohol dependence in the penitentiary system showed that serious predictors can manifest themselves according to signs of well-being of the legal impact: they appear without consequences; the presence in the period of life of unfair and difficult treatment of the patient and their relative proximity in time; the presence of a criminal record and their number; use of planning as a style of self-regulation of behavior; increasing the level of general aggression, being at the stage of active actions of one’s addictive behavior.
Ключевые слова:
aggressive behavior, alcohol dependence, predictive model of aggressive behavior.